PERFORMANCE ANNOUNCEMENT

As Of: October 30, 2003

The End Of And Era

Is the tide of attitude changing?

      This past week, the supersonic Concorde airplane took its last commercial flight. While this was the end of an era in aviation, it is perhaps also a turning point in public attitude. Americans have traditionally confused quality with quantity. Americans think more is better, bigger is better, faster is better, and stronger is better. Americans have never been comfortable with the concept of quality defined by the minimalist features of elegant simplicity and efficiency. Perhaps the death of the Concorde is the first small signal that attitudes are changing. Even if the change was driven by economics, there is now an understanding that supersonic is not efficient. Supersonic is not environmentally friendly. It wastes resources. And ultimately its apparent benefits are not cost justified.

      It is perhaps ironic that the Concorde was a joint British and French project, not an American undertaking. The reach for supersonic speed belongs in America right alongside the 400 horsepower muscle car. Mankind in general, and Americans in particular, tend to think in a very linear fashion. If a little bit is good, more is better. Progress is always measured in terms of growth. Witness the capitalist economy: growth is good. Rarely does anyone question whether there is such a thing as too big, too fast, or too rich.

      Perhaps the realization that we should live with subsonic commercial travel is the beginning of an awakening. Perhaps as the Dennis Kozlowski trial unfolds, people will realize that there are, or should be, limits to our greed. Perhaps if we suffer major debt default in the future, people will awake to the realization that unbridled consumerism should not be the engine that drives our economy. One would think that investors might have already learned that excess in the marketplace should be avoided, but perhaps that realization has yet to take hold.

      In almost all aspects of their lives (including personal, economic, and social), people expect the unidirectional progression of growth experienced in the past to continue. But how can a world of finite limits accommodate an unlimited progression of growth and improvement? Is it realistic to believe that the human race can continue to populate the world, provide a constantly improving standard of living, eliminate disease, forestall death, and live in peace? Clearly some of the necessary resources will be exhausted and conflicts will arise. Without a structural framework within which to address these inevitable conflicts, the world is at risk of falling into anarchy, both national anarchy and individual anarchy. A change in attitude is required. Once people realize that constant unlimited progression is not possible, and they start thinking in terms of complex systems with shifting variables and finite resources, perhaps then the human race can deal better with its uncertain future.

      Is there an investable theme here? Probably not yet. But maybe, just maybe, attitudes will slowly change to the realization that faster isn't necessarily better. More isn't always better; and we do have other choices.